Hello everyone and good Tuesday afternoon! We are still tracking a major winter storm to hit the Great Plains with significant snowfall and blowing and drifting snowfall. The models have overall downtrended in the strength of the QPF field since last Friday and have actually move a tad south with the low pressure giving more locations in Kansas some snow as well but overall it has remained consistent. The GFS has remained the weakest with the storm totals while the NAM continues to be advertising more snowfall then the GFS. Let’s take a look at the GFS snowfall;
Has a large area of 12 inches of snow across Nebraska and Kansas with 12-14 inches across North Central Kansas. This seems to be the overall rule with all models.
The NAM is more expansive with the snow totals and even has the 12+ extending into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. One thing we know for sure the NAM and GFS agree that the heaviest will fall in north central Kansas and south central Nebraska.
Here is my updated map;
My accumulation map will be updated tomorrow night just ahead of the storm! Stay tuned!
Good early Monday morning everyone, we are tracking a MAJOR winter storm here at Snow Day. Let’s get off talking about the 0z data.
Let’s first talk about the 0z GFS QPF totals:
The model has a wide area of .75-1.00 inches of QPF over Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa with the bullseye across southeastern Nebraska. That would put a significant swath of 8-12″ with 12-15″ is along I-80 near Lincoln Nebraska. As this storm system moves northeast and east the snow shield begins to fall apart by Friday over eastern Iowa and into the Great Lakes as the blocking effect begins to squash it down.
0z CMC model;
The 0z CMC model is a bit less over Nebraska with once again the bullseye over northeast Kansas to southeast Nebraska from Lincoln to Omaha and this time through Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
The NAVY model is considerably stronger and wound up then other models with two feet of snow possible across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
0z NAM only goes out to 84 hours but already it is showing huge amounts over central Kansas to eastern Nebraska and central Nebraska.
At 84 HOUR it is really starting to crank up;
Bullseye is really starting to fall over eastern Nebraska with perhaps some thundersnow over this area.
One thing is for sure, the most significant totals look to be over Nebraska through western Iowa. Obviously the path is set in stone but the strength is not. How high these totals will go is still in question so stay tuned!
Hello and good afternoon everyone we have a lot to talk about so let’s first get started off talking about the clipper storm system merging with the nor’easter off the northeastern United States coastline.
First image we are looking at right here shows that we have an Alberta Clipper storm system moving across the upper midwest with snow falling behind the low in Wisconsin;
An abundant amount of cold air is funneling in behind the Alberta Clipper with the low pressure off the northeast coast beginning to take shape.
And then the merger begins to take shape between the Alberta Low and nor’easter;
The merger is taking place with colder air beginning to wrap in to the northwest of the nor’easter and the pressure gradient beginning to tighten off the coast.
And then here she is, the blizzard begins to take shape especially across and near Boston, MA.
Already by 66 hour extremely heavy snowfall, perhaps 2-4″ per hour with thundersnow and winds gusting to 50-60 mph will be common across MA.
Total snow through 66 hour;
Catastrophic snow amounts with perhaps areas that roads may be impassable due to the extensive blowing and drifting snowfall. This is a serious nor’easter and the first huge storm of the winter for this year, so please prepare for this if you are living in this area.
So looking over everything here is my first and final snowfall accumulation map;
Besides the northeast, 3-6″ of wind blown snow will fall across a good chunk of Wisconsin, with Wisconsin being one of the only winners so far this winter, the lucky spot I should say for getting in on the bulk of the snow action.
Please stay tuned for more details later on tonight with 0z model runs and if I need to update the map any further.
Good Tuesday afternoon everyone, just going to go over how this winter has started so far.
The latest December temperature and precipitation maps are out and ready to discuss over;
As you can see, an extensive ridge has been over the eastern United States for the entire half of December, with a few breaks as we headed into the last week with a storm system that hit parts of the northeast. But overall warmer than average weather has dominated from the Missouri River on east with the epicenter of colder weather over the Great Lakes. This is an average however, the last week and a half of December were quite cold over the upper half of the nation, with that area having the coldest readings but on average the United States was warmer than average with average temperatures over the western United States.
Despite the warmer than average temperatures, high amounts of precipitation have fallen over the southeast through the northeastern United States with a small area over the Great Plains through parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Overall the hardest hit drought areas have gotten some good moisture in December so far so that is good news. The western United States has gotten above average precipitation as well.
I have NOT done well so far with my temperature map but my precipitation prediction for this winter is starting to come out nicely.
We have the rest of this month and through March to go through, but so far many areas are below average in snowfall, but I have hope that we will get a turn around!
After about 5-7 days of warmer weather to move into the central plains and Ohio Valley as well as the eastern United States, a new series of troughs are expected to form over the western United States. The first trough that moves out into the Plains will have the least amount of cold air available but still could pack a punch somewhere in the plains. Let’s take a look at the NAO;
As you can see, the NAO has been positive for a while but as we head towards the 10th-16th the NAO will start to slide down towards negative range and perhaps even negative by the 16th. This would indicate more potential cold air to wrap into any storm systems around that time.
Most models are developing a series of troughs in the extended but I’ll post the most reliable model and that is the EURO;
The first trough or cut off low appears near the 9th of this month and as you can see, very little cold air is available at this time for this storm system. As it moves northeast more cold air will interact but I dont see a huge amount of arctic air involved in this.
After that things change;
Another storm system closer to the dates I mentioned when the NAO starts to go negative, colder air is available for storm systems around this time. Now this is way in advance but I’ve seen enough consistency to say that more storminess will occur as we approach mid month!
First off I’d like to apologize for the lack of updates recently, but enough of excuses lets get talking about what looks interesting over the next 7-10 days.
Weather feature #1
Looking at this weather feature, a blocking effect is still holding strong in the Hudson Bay Canada forcing this weak storm system to develop some snow from Kansas and Oklahoma to portions of the Ohio Valley and straight to the Middle Atlantic. It remains to be seen if it will strengthen or remain a weak wave or if it will produce any ice accumulations in the Middle Atlantic States and Carolina States.
Weather feature #2
Looking at weather feature number 2, looks like some extremely cold canadian air will pour south and southwest into the central Plains and Ohio Valley on Thursday with temperatures not getting out of the single digits and teens for highs north of I-80. Looks like this overrunning cold air will force some precipitation into deep south Texas with yes maybe some snow for parts of southern Texas if things hold true
Looking at weather feature number 3, it is looking like after a couple brutally cold weeks for the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a warm up will move into those areas next Sunday and possibly extend into the middle of the next week.
Overall, not really an active week coming up with more cold air on the way and possibly some snow for the deep south next Thursday.
Stay tuned for more updates on these!
Hello and good Tuesday afternoon everyone, I know everyone is excited for FINALLY some snow in the Great Plains states and it couldnt have came at a better time with the calendar nearing Christmas! Let’s take a look at the latest computer models;
As you can see the GFS has the swath of snow from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and through central and western Iowa and eventually southern and central Wisconsin. The gradient behind the storm is strengthening with strong winds starting to increase after 4-5 PM in Nebraska/Kansas.
The NAM model has the same track as well with the snow in the same position. I think we are coming to a consensus in the models here with just a few minor tweaks here and there.
12z CMC has the same storm track as well with the heaviest from eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin.
Overall i think a band of several inches of snow will fall from I-80 in eastern Nebraska on south to central Iowa then northeast to southern Wisconsin. Stay tuned for more updates!
Hello and good Monday afternoon everyone! Pretty busy tracking a winter storm that will be possible over the Great Plains including Nebraska, Kansas, parts of Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The computer models are starting to come into better agreement regarding the actual evolution, track and strength of the storm system. Still minor kinks will need to be worked out and those minor kinks will have a large effect depending on if you are on a fine line between lots of snow to not much at all. Below is my winter storm forecast map;
The best area I see for accumulating snow in from western Kansas to central and eastern Nebraska to much of Iowa, southern Minnesota, southern and central Wisconsin. The actual area of significant snow will not actually be this large but the best areas are in blue above.
Let’s take a look at a few computer models regarding this storm system;
The GFS computer model tracks the low pressure system over Kansas City and lays a swath of significant snow over central and eastern Nebraska, northern Kansas and much of Iowa to much of Wisconsin. The low begins to tighten up early Thursday with strong winds possibly inducing Blizzard Conditions.
With the same path as the GFS computer model I think we can come to a conclusion that the storm system will track near Kansas City northeast to Chicago laying a swath of accumulating snow and strong winds to the NW track of the storm system.
The european computer model is a tad more south but the track record with that model is benign considering it has not been the best the last few weeks. The UKMET/CMC model are more so agreeing as well. I will be issuing more 0z model updates later tonight so stay tuned!
White Christmas Forecast
A large area of the Great Plains I believe has a high chance at receiving a White Christmas based on the upcoming storm system coming as well as recent snow still on the ground in the Dakotas and Minnesota. The storm system mid this week will usher in Lake Effect Snow on the Great Lakes thus most of those areas will see a White Christmas. The areas to the south in the possible zone are more iffy regarding a storm system on Christmas day next week, that storm is all over the place so please stay tuned!
Good morning everyone, just going ahead with a quick update on the 0z models that came out overnight and most of them are starting to drift north except a few of them. Let’s take a look at them shall we?
Let’s just say the european model has totally lost the storm, it doesn’t develop it at all, just a strong cold front with a few cold air advection snow showers. Not really going to go with this computer model run as it is the outlier out of every other model but will pay close attention to it.
As you can see the canadian model has a swath of snow from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska through northern and western Missouri as well as parts of northern Illinois and southern and central Wisconsin. The storm system isn’t too terribly strong but still would lay out a swath of several inches over the mentioned areas.
The navy model has a strong storm system, not really negative tilted however, but still has several inches of snow from northwestern Kansas to central and eastern Nebraska and on through Iowa and eventually southern Wisconsin.
The GFS model is a lot like the canadian as well as the NAVY model but the european model continually disagrees and either has a progressive storm or nothing at all. Bottom line is there is still way too much uncertainty regarding the track. Some major models are starting to move north with the snow but still a lot of fine tuning to go. The system has not moved on shore yet, which is part of the problem obviously. Gotta get the storm sampled once it moves on land and out of fantasy land. Not saying the EURO couldn’t be right but right now that is the outlier with all the models.
Stay tuned for more updates mid day today and later this afternoon after 12z models!
Have a great morning and THINK SNOW!
Good Tuesday afternoon everyone I am still reviewing over the potential for a winter storm system to hit the central Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Today’s models have varied from no storm at all to several inches of snow and wind to just a few flurries over the northern Plains. Let’s go over each of the models here;
The latest 12z euro really digs the storm deep across the dessert southwestern United States and really doesn’t phase the storm system just kind of moves along the front northeast through central Ohio with a swath of snow through central Michigan. Nothing really strong looking here just a quick mover.
The latest canadian computer model deepens the storm over eastern Kansas and moves it over Chicago early next week. This would break out a swath of moderate-heavy snow from eastern Nebraska to Central Iowa and through southern Wisconsin. The colder air comes in quicker thus moves the storm system further northwest.
The 12z navy is rather progressive in nature with the storm system, it really doesn’t phase at all with the cold air and is really just a band of snow and rain along the front as it moves through over parts of Nebraska and Iowa on south.
I am not really allowed to post the JMA model or the DGEX model on the model site I use but the JMA model really digs and phases the storm over central Kansas and leaves a significant swath of snow from western Kansas to Nebraska parts of Iowa eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin early next week while the DGEX does nearly the same thing.
Now, thinking over everything, I really wouldn’t say we have any real agreement among any models going on here. The GFS/EURO model seem to be really weakening the storm system and going way further south while the CMC/JMA/DJEX model all go further north. Really plenty of days to go with pulling our hair out over this storm system but one thing I can say is that i dont think the storm will fall apart, there will be a storm with this very negative NAO and I think the colder air will be stronger then anticipated thus making it go further northwest. But that’s just my two cents.
Stay tuned later tonight for updates on the 12z GFS then euro/cmc/navy later on!