Winter Forecast 2011-2012

by Craig McPeck

Hello and welcome to yet another start of the upcoming fall season at Snow-Day.org, your number one source for winter weather forecast and information!

Here are the dates that which my winter forecast’s will come out;

- September 16th – Preliminary and 1st winter forecast issuance
- October 16th – Second winter forecast issuance
- November 16th – Final winter forecast issuance

I would like to touch up on a few things, rather hints, no give-aways you will all have to wait for the winter forecast on September 16th.

Here is the current ice cover chart;

As you can se the red line is the 2011 line and for a while it was holding strong somewhere in the middle of the graph but during the summer it started sliding back to the least ice cover during the last 10 or so years. But in the last week or so the arctic has seen much below average temperatures to come in thus the sea ice is making a drastic recovery as seen as the sharp right turn with the red line.

Also here is the EXPERIMENTAL NASA Climate model predictor;

As you can see, through next winter it carries us into a very weak la nina even a neutral state of climate phase. But as I am watching this Sea Surface Temperatures conditions are very exceptional for a La Nina so I am guessing we could see a weak or moderate strength la nina;

That is all for now, you may make your own judgements upon this information, but you will all just have to wait for my winter forecast on September 16th!

-Craig

Much cooler weather and return of Storms

Been a while since I have wrote a blog post, but i guess its better then never! Over the last couple of weeks hot, humid weather has engulfed the central plains while the NAO was also skyrocketing. This is attributing to the above average temperatures over the central plains.

Current NAO Chart;

As you can see we are already dropping off pretty sharply and the NAO will continue to be quite negative through the week of June 16th. This will allow more cooler air to filter into the country. However, the heat will continue to just run its course in the deep south, particularly in Texas where they are an extreme drought on-going.

OHHHHHH YESSSSS – THE COOL DOWN – PRAISE THE LORD

A cool front will continue to move southeast and is currently situated over central Nebraska through central Minnesota. This will move southeast through the overnight hours and just stall over southeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa tomorrow as a stationary warm front;

Temperatures were in the 90s and near 100 degrees from much of Kansas through much of Nebraska through central Minnesota today, that will change tomorrow. The heat will generally stay south of I-70 in the central plains;

Hot temperatures from I-70 south in the upper 90s to near 100 and even over that combined with dew points in the upper 70s and low 70s will make for a brutal hot day once again for areas such as Kansas City, St Louis, Topeka Kansas and anywhere south of that area as well.

THE STORMS

Relief is on the way this stationary warm front near the Kansas Nebraska border and Iowa Missouri border will ignite severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening. Moisture combined with CAPE values of 3000-4000, dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s as well as high shear values;

They will most likely form from northern Kansas through Central Iowa and will move north with the warm front mid to late Wednesday evening producing Damaging Winds, Large Hail and some Isolated tornadoes with-in the higher shear values, particularly along and south of Interstate-80 in eastern Nebraska and Iowa.

Speaking of COOLNESS – Thursday will be even cooler across the northern Plains with 60s and 70s for Highs mainly from Northwestern Kansas through Nebraska, Iowa on north due to all the Thunderstorms and Clouds over the area. It will feel quite invigorating i must say.

Well have an awesome evening folks!

Severe Weather Sunday-Wednesday next week

A MAJOR storm system will move up into the central plains with the first threat being Sunday along a warm front in central Kansas. Those storms will then move north and hit Nebraska and Iowa as the warm front moves north late Sunday night with the Low Level Jet. Severe storms possible Monday afternoon but due to the strong CAP will be hard to get much to form. Better chance on Tuesday in eastern Nebraska on south and east. More details later.

More Severe Weather / Heavy Rain / Snow?

Stay tuned for more details.

Tornado Outbreak / Blizzard / High Winds / Flash Flooding

My head is spinning from this storm! I haven’t seen such a dynamic storm in the spring time like this one in a long time! I will discuss each aspect of this storm below;

WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD : The most likely areas for a winter storm will occur over north central Nebraska westward through western Nebraska, western and central South Dakota. the Heaviest accumulations will occur near the or just west of the freezing line near Valentine Nebraska where precipitation intensity will be maximized in the cold air area. About 7-12″ of snowfall will be possible in northern Nebraska with 2-6″ over western and north central Nebraska. As this storm moves east it could also produce accumulations of snow from I-80 north in eastern Nebraska mainly under 3″ but if the storm can keep its intensity and the freezing line moves through quicker eastern Nebraska may be in for a surprise. High winds mainly on the northwestern side of the storm will cause Blizzard conditions with wind speeds nearing 60 MPH.These kind of wind speeds can produce tree and power line damage so please stay safe.

Tornado Outbreak / Severe Storms : Severe storms are starting to form across south central Nebraska and northern Kansas as I type this and big line of super cells will form from there to central Kansas and through central Oklahoma and Texas and spread east. Areas of central and eastern Oklahoma will have its svere weather values maximized thus Tornadic potential will be very high with strong damaging long tracked tornadoes.

Heavy Rain / Flash Flooding : Heavy rainfall will be quite common for any storm in Kansas and Oklahoma but also heavy rainfall amounts will be quite common from central Nebraska through eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Rainfall totals will be highest in eastern Nebraska from .75-3″ and even some models are forming 4″ amounts!

The Result : 4-6 Tornados & Heavy Rain / Heavy Snow storm!

(WILL DISCUSS WINTER STORM / RAIN STORM TOMORROW)

Hello everyone, went storm chasing with a group of people last Saturday and saw between 4-6 Tornados in northwestern Iowa. Here is the first tornado we saw;

Lightning Video;

Wall Clouds /Lowerings ;

CG Lightning Strikes;

Watch other videos here;

http://www.youtube.com/user/craigmcpeckexperienc?feature=mhum

Storm Chase Photos being added here;

http://www.flickr.com/photos/33061056@N05/?saved=1

Severe Storms Today

Hello everyone, just letting yall know that I will be storm chasing today but will go with a run down of the current morning data and give my opinion on what will happen.

First off lets look at the HRR’s 15 HR CAPE values then the RUCs 12 hour CAPE values, EHI, shear and dew point.

HRR CAPE;

That looks rather impressive with 4000-5000 CAPE values surging north into eastern Nebraska south of the warm front.

Let’s take a look at the RUC’s depicted CAPE values and other values around 12 hours;

The RUC is also trending up there with the CAPE values as well exceeding above 4000 and continuing to surge north.

Now for the dew points;

Lots of moisture indicated as by the dew points with 50-70 dew points surging north over eastern Nebraska.

Now for the EHI values;

And now the VERY important factor is how strong the CAP is;

The CAP starts the weaken considerably in south central Nebraska towards Beatrice and Columbus. This is where the first severe storms may form and then move northeast through Iowa and southern Minnesota. Tornadoes will be possible anywhere where storms may become rooted along the warm front this evening with also large damaging hail up to golf ball size and 60-70 mph wind gust possible as well.

Severe Weather Outbreak this weekend!

Hello everyone, over the next several months through the summer I will discussing weather events as well as talking about next winter as of right now it is looking like a neutral winter, so I will just leave it at that about next winter. So let’s have some fun forecasting the severe weather events over the next several months.

The main threat for severe thunderstorms will cullminate over the central plains on Saturday. I expect this to be a pretty big day in terms of severe thunderstorms over parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri as well as Iowa.

Here is the highest CAPE values as suggested by the 00z GFS that came out yesterday;

Rather impressive, i know. Tornadoes will be quite possible from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and along the dry line into central Kansas, but more specifically across southwestern Iowa and southern Iowa near the warm front, that has the best potential to receive tornadoes, but certainly the other areas mentioned will be quite primed as well.

Just a little teaser until we get closer to the event and I will make a more thorough post.

Enjoy your day!

Severe Storm Outbreak Today

Storms are starting to form in eastern Nebraska and in south central Nebraska ahead of the surface low and cold front trailing along it. CAPE values of 500-1000 are ahead of the cold front and are rising with dew points near 60 degrees ahead of the front as well. Still lots of CINH, meaning CAP in place across a large portion of the warm sector but conditions are destablizing this afternoon while a CU field is starting to form in a line across eastern Nebraska. The best threat for Tornado will be across southwestern Iowa with some tornadoes possible as well a few counties west of the Missouri river but main threat being Large hail and isolated damaging wind gust.

Severe Storm Outbreak Today

Hello everyone, it appears that ingredients will come together for a severe storm outbreak. Will make a more detailed post near noon-12:30 so better data is sampled in the morning. Looks very good for large hail, isolated tornadoes and damaging winds