Why this storm will have enough cold air!? YES!
Why this storm will have enough cold air!
10:00 PM Central
A couple local meteorologist I have been noticing in Omaha Nebraska have been saying that this upcoming storm system will not have enough cold air for significant snowfall amounts. Well there will be plenty, it is a cut off low yes and it will make its own cold air we are in late January and we should not have a problem at all.
There was a VERY similar storm to this one coming up this weekend back in late December that took a similar track had similar 500mb features most of the big features in the 500mb pattern were very similar including that it was a large cut off low pressure with copious amounts of moisture with the Gulf of Mexico vastly open for business. This storm system in late December too was coming on the heals of a MAJOR warm spell over the central United States just like this week and the storm had no problem generating cold air for VERY significant snowfall totals over Kansas and parts of Oklahoma and Colorado.
Let’s compare both 500MB patterns for both storms and compare.
Late December Storm;
As you can see there are several key features we need to focus on here when comparing. The cut off ball of low pressure situated over central Kansas and another low in California. Another feature is the split flow over the Great Lakes and a southeastern ridge. The split flow and the southeast ridge are kinda sandwiched together not allowing this storm system in Kansas to move very fast and too just sit there for a few days. Once the storm system finally exited it fell apart over the Great Lakes as the split flow just tore it apart.
As you can see right here, the storm did NOT really have a cold air source from Canada, it made its own cold air just fine with no problem at all and produced heavy wet snowfall totals some near 20″ in southwestern Kansas.
Ok now let’s compare that pattern and storm to the current storm we are watching;
0z NAM;
As you can see, both features of the 500mb pattern are VERY similar except for the Californian low. This storm system is actually MUCH stronger and slower then the late December storm as noted by the pattern but the MAIN KEY FEATURES are VERY identical including the split flow over the Great Lakes and the southeastern ridge. These two KEY features will slow the storm down considerably allowing copious amounts of Gulf Moisture to ensue and dump heavy amounts of precipitation. Funny enough as it heads to the Great Lakes it starts to fall apart just like the late December storm. This storm will have plenty of cold air it’ll make on its own, its late January its going to happen plain and simple. Lots of lift associated with this storm will provide the liklihood of thundersnow and will cool the atmosphere more so.
Just thought I’d clarify this!
Stay tuned to http://snow-day.org for more information and our FB page!;
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Snow-Day-1-Source-for-winter-weather-information/122352087833199
-Craig
