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September 16, 2012

113

Winter Forecast 2012-2013 – A Return to Winter!

by craig1

PLEASE SEE THE FINAL WINTER FORECAST HEREhttp://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/11/16/final-winter-forecast-2012-2013-winter-returns/

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Hello everyone and welcome to the official first installation of Snow Day’s winter forecast 2012-2013. First off before getting into this years winter forecast, I would like to talk about last winter and what went wrong. Almost everyone predicted another blockbuster winter and we all know that didn’t happen. The NAO along with the AO turned sharply positive through the winter and that in turn created warmer conditions over the winter with blocking patterns keeping the cold air bottled up in parts of Canada and ESPECIALLY Alaska, they had a record breaking winter with excessive snowfall while nearly the entire United States experienced record warm temperatures, very little snow and ice and unhappy school children that received no snow days. In fact, I remember a few days in early January walking around outside in shorts and a t-shirt with temperatures approaching 70 degrees, that is just not right! Now let’s get into the winter forecast with first explaining what climate we are experiencing and heading into…EL NINO!

Winter Forecast 2012-2013 – EL NINO…EL NINO….EL NINO!

El Nino conditions are considered a warm ocean current that flows along the equator from the date line and south of the coast line.

The above graphic shows ocean temperatures during a La Nina and during an El Nino. The right portion of the image shows warmer waters along the equator while the left side shows colder temperatures over the same area showing a La Nina pattern. El Nino’s and La Nina’s are rarely ever “normal” as last winter was an La Nina and barely even resembled a typical one with above average temperatures across most of the country.

Let’s compare the current sea surface temperatures over the Pacific;

There is a warm band of water over the exact area, where it should be for an El Nino, but it is not as warm as you would expect, so its looking like a extremely weak El Nino by the looks of the current sea surface temperatures. Taking a look at the latest CFS climate model forecast showing us how strong the current El Nino could be;
As you can see we are at a weak status for an El Nino right now, and as we even approach the heart of winter, it begins to weak into an extremely weak El Nino and maybe even to a neutral state!

One thing that will have a small impact on the weather this fall and potentially winter is the dry soils across the central Plains and Ohio Valley;

Soil moisture DOES have an impact of the climate over the seasons, though the wet soils over the Ohio Valley last fall didn’t do much for them during the winter and spring and summer months as the temperatures continued to warm and the storm systems and rainfall avoided them, so I would say that soil moisture has little to do with the following season, but certainly has an effect on storm systems in the summer time with less moisture in the crops causing less transpiration into the atmosphere.

One thing I talked about last fall was the LRC weather cycle theory, a new unique pattern that sets up every October 1st through early November and keeps cycling over and over through the next fall, it was developed by Gary Lezac of Kansas City, so will be paying attention over the next several weeks as a brand new pattern starts to set up and cycles on through the winter time.

Another thing that may have some impact is the current solar maximum, which is almost non existent right now, with very few sunspots making this the least active solar max’s in quite some time, so the effects wont be much as it would normally be.

Ok….your here for the winter forecast right? Let’s get to it!

Winter Forecast 2012-2013 – Winter Analogs

As you can see there are some notable winters in that list, with 2009 standing out the most and the most recent. 2009 was an epic winter for much of the eastern and central United States with several blockbuster winter storms and blizzards with a blizzard striking the entire central plains during Christmas eve and Christmas day. Here is a list of the winters I picked with the strength of the El Nino next to it;

2009-2010 winter / Moderate El Nino

1976-1977 winter / weak El Nino

1977-1978 – Weak El Nino

2000-2001 winter – Weak La Nina

Basically I am leaning heavily on 2009-2010, 1977-1978 as well as 1976-1977 winter as they were either weak El Ninos or borderline moderate as well as because the correlation with the ocean temperatures. Looking at the NAO graph now, It seems to be following the winter of 2009-2010 more closely. Now predicting whether the NAO/AO will be negative or positive is extremely tough but I am leaning heavily towards a negative NAO/AO winter but time will tell of course. Anyways, the coldest air that came up with the analog system was over the eastern 2/3rds of the country with the western United States seeing above average temperatures, basically a flip flop of weather patterns for the country.

Winter 2012-2013 Temperatures

As you can see, I am predicting below average temperatures over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country with the heart of the cold air staying put over portions of the Great Corn Belt states, Upper Midwest and through the Ohio Valley, this will be a much different winter then last winter I will tell you that. I am thinking there should be persistent blocking over Green Land and with a ridge over western Canada promoting this area for extended periods of extreme cold. The cold will be more intense starting in December and January and start to subside as the winter progresses but will still be overall below average temperatures wise. The area that experienced below average temperatures last winter will experience ABOVE average temperatures this winter with persistent ridging from this area all the way into western Canada.

Winter 2012-2013 Precipitation

Winter precipitation will be plentiful from southern California through the desert southwest and through the southern plains, southeast and eastern United States with above average moisture especially over southern California and the southeastern United States. Precipitation will be below average over parts of the Ohio Valley and with average to slightly above average precipitation totals over the central Plains with a little more active jetstream going through this region then last winter providing more storm systems. The southern jetstream will prove to be more active this winter as well with several storm systems crossing the deep south and heading up the eastern United States coastline.

Winter 2012-2013 SNOWFALL – What you’ve all been waiting for!

I am expecting above average snowfall from parts of the southeastern United States straight up the coastline of the eastern United States. This will be due in part to the strong southern jetstream El Nino’s normally create. Apart from that, I am expecting the snowiest conditions from North Carolina up north through Maine as several Nor’Easters will lash the coast line with strong winds and heavy snowfall like systems. Another area I am expecting average to slight above average snowfall will be over the central Plains states, otherwise known as the corn belt. I am expecting a few big storm systems to land on shore of southern California and attach themselves to the cold air over the central Plains creating the potential for some significant snowfall, I am more hesitant on this area and I will become more confident in the Winter Forecast update in October and November on the central Plains prospects. Due to the colder then average temperatures over the central and northern Plains, I am expecting quite a few Alberta Clippers this winter delivering with it several quick hitting moderate snowfalls, windy conditions and colder arctic temperatures. I was going to slide this area into the Great Lake’s state but will wait until the next winter forecast update to do so.

Overall I am expecting a much more harsh winter over the central and eastern United States with those area’s receiving payback due to the lack luster winter last year. I know I have lots of the viewers from the Ohio Valley so I would be calling for average snowfall, a couple medium sized ice storms and below average temperatures for this winter with the bulk of the storm systems going just south and east of the area as well as just north, but during the big arctic blasts, the Alberta clippers may reach as far south as the Ohio Valley. The central plains will experience below average temperatures, average to above average snowfall with the most snowfall falling over the upper Midwest. The southeastern United States will experience quite a few ice storms and winter storm systems dumping heavy wet snowfall and stronger then normal surges of arctic air. The eastern United States should experience quite a few Nor’Easters with heavy blinding snowfall and strong winds with at least one or two storms producing blizzard conditions. This winter outlook is more preliminary then the next two winter updates so as we get closer to winter time, the winter forecast will become more clearer and I will be able to make changes to it as the new pattern begins to show and more data begins to show. One thing I am worried about is if the NAO/AO stay negative through the winter time or if they go back to where they were last winter and the entire winter just changes once again, but I have enough evidence that the current pattern is going to take us into a much more snowier and colder winter for folks! Please feel free to comment inside here with any questions and please share this link with your friends on facebook as well as emailing anyone would be helpful. Thank you for viewing Snow Day’s winter forecast and I hope you stay tuned for the next winter forecast update on October 16th!

Sincerely,

Craig McPeck

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113 Comments Post a comment
  1. kevin plimmer
    Sep 16 2012

    I’m a big fan of your site I live near Detroit Michigan and I was realy hoping for snow this year since last year realy sucked I remember since I was a kid we use to get so much snow and now it seams we don’t get any anyways do you think Detroit will have at least a average snow fall this year?

    Reply
  2. Sep 16 2012

    I am thinking Detroit will see average snowfall, I left them out of the above average snowfall for now but will review it further for the next winter outlook. I am thinking you will receive quite a few snow events from the Alberta Clippers.

    Reply
  3. RichWi.
    Sep 16 2012

    Thanks for all you effort..Our Local weather person follows this LRC very closely…Has a lot of faith in it..

    Reply
  4. Sep 16 2012

    Rats…once again the part of Missouri I live in is left out!

    Reply
    • nancy
      Nov 17 2012

      will the st.louis area have any snow at all ..like maybe around christmas or Newyears

      Reply
  5. Sep 16 2012

    Great Job Craig! I agree but El Nino looks to be more neutral. Anyone from Midwest/Lakes come join us at centralwx forums…we have winter discussions and observatations with people all around the region!
    !http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showforum=52

    Reply
    • RichWi.
      Sep 16 2012

      I’ll look into that..

      Reply
  6. Jacob Vandervest
    Sep 16 2012

    Looking good for Grand Forks, ND! :) I really hope there are plenty of clippers this year! Big fan of your forecast!

    Reply
  7. Sep 16 2012

    Craig, You did a fine job with your forecast! We at FirstHand Weather are forecasting a record cold winter east of the Mississippi. Looks like a repeat of the Winter of 1976-77. Here in Upstate, S.C. the temp. never got above 32 degrees for over two weeks and we recorded overnight low temps.of 3 below zero on 3 different days during that period. And remember, we are talking about Belton, S.C. We also feel we are moving into a cold period that will last 25 to 35 years. Maybe an Mini Ice Age! I feel sorry for Al Gore! He needs to leave the weather forecasting to us and go back into the field he knows best; The Internet!!! P.S. Craig, Good luck with your forecast. One thing is for sure; If you are wrong I will be also!

    Reply
    • W Scott Lincoln
      Sep 16 2012

      What evidence do you have that suggests a mini ice age lasting 25-35 years?

      Reply
      • RichWi.
        Sep 16 2012

        I think they are getting it from J.Bastardi…

  8. Mike
    Sep 16 2012

    Craig, What do you think for northwestern Illinois area? Hopefully snowy and cold? Thanks for the forcast!

    Reply
  9. Andrej Flis
    Sep 16 2012

    Nice forecast. I would also like to see some fresh reanalysis with this. Not the old ones with the old climatology period. I can make them if you want, but I am sure you know how to work with NOAA tools :)
    And yes, the pattern seems to be moving towards a negative NAO/AO. 09-10 is also my best guess for now at least. But, it will be interesting to see, if this is actually going to be classified as El Nino. Its so weak, that it might be just a warm neutral phase in the end. But lets call it El Nino anyway. Given this is also a cold El Nino, http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomp.9.13.2012.gif (you see the cold PDO?), I wonder if you considered that vital feature when you were making the forecast? Also, the intensity of the ENSO “cycle” has an effect, like you have mentioned. Given the weakness of this cycle, it will be interesting to see if the AAM will be strong enough to create the typical El Nino pattern. :) But at least the models have grabbed on to the El Nino idea and are really pushing it forward. The fact is, when considering all major factors, it is obvious that this is a unique warm ENSO cycle.
    I see many many blogs that make a vital mistake, and that is when they see an El Nino coming on, they go: “its an El Nino so lets read at Wikipedia what weather it brings and write a blog post”. Some actually take the time to look at its intensity and compare it with past events. Some then even do a reanalysis or two. And the very few, take into account everything around it.
    Don`t get me wrong Mr. McPeck, I am not “bashing” your blog in any way. :) I like blog posts like this, that take a lot of stuff into into account, and don’t simply copy half of the text and graphics from Wikipedia. :)

    I would like to hear your reply to this. And may your forecast be as accurate as possible.

    Best Regards from Europe,

    Andrej.

    Reply
    • Sep 16 2012

      Thanks for the comment. I probably should have put up some comarisons of the ssts from the years i was using. Thanks again.

      Reply
  10. Teresa
    Sep 16 2012

    I live in Mancelona, MI just east of Traverse City…was hoping we would be in the above average snowfall. Seems like every year the snowfall keeps decreasing. Thanks for the updates!!!

    Reply
  11. Josh S.
    Sep 16 2012

    We all must remember what happened last winter when everyone predicted a snowy/cold winter.This winter could go either way! Time will tell!

    Reply
  12. Heather
    Sep 16 2012

    I love a good snow storm but honestly I am hoping to see cold snowy awful weather this winter, not to bad to knock the power out but kill off the bugs && my allergies, worst allergies I’ve ever had in my life, I live in Steubenville Ohio hoping to get some snow this winter.

    Reply
  13. Mike
    Sep 16 2012

    The entire midwest needs a cold snowy winter not just for us snow lovers but for the farmers. We are going to face record high meat prices and food prices next summer due to the massve drought this year. The drought was enhanced by the lack of moisture during the winter as in no sub soil moisture. We need lots of snow cover and cold.

    Reply
    • Sep 16 2012

      I totally agree with you Mike. Last winter here in Omaha, NE was brutal with barely any snow and cold. And the thing is we just don’t need it for our pleasure, we REALLY DO need it, because if we don’t get a good snowpack during the winter, we are further screwed for next springs crops.

      Reply
      • RichWi.
        Sep 16 2012

        I agree with the crops thing…Plus the revenue by snow plowers

  14. Angie
    Sep 16 2012

    What about Central Indiana? I hope we get so much snow, that we get sick of it!!!!!!

    Reply
    • Sep 16 2012

      I’m thinking central Indiana …depending on how the storm pattern evolves out of southern California could get a big snowstorm or two. But right now I am thinking your area could receive quite a few icing events as well as the majority of the snow from Alberta Clippers. Stay tuned for next months 2nd update to the forecast!

      Reply
      • Angie
        Sep 16 2012

        No ice, ugggghhhh, lol

      • Sep 16 2012

        Haha you don’t like ice storms?

  15. Anthony
    Sep 16 2012

    I hope to god this will come true for Maryland. because for the last 2 winters after the big winter of 2009-2010, we have lacked a lot of snow from the winters of 2010-2011 and 2011-2012.

    So I’m just hoping we’ll have much better luck for more snow this winter 2012-2013. Having 2 winter of snow drought, to me, would be like having summer without rain, which is never good.
    And with that being said, after couple years of not having a real winter, we are overdue for a good, snowy winter. I’ll be crossing my fingers until then, and dream of snow lol

    Reply
    • Sep 16 2012

      Hoping you get a good winter as well Anthony. I am thinking it will be a lot better.

      Reply
  16. Joe Reb
    Sep 16 2012

    I just moved from Florida to Knoxville, Tn. How do we look for cold and snowy weather this year?

    Reply
    • Sep 16 2012

      I’m thinking a good part of TN will be involved in some pretty big storm systems with snow and ice involved in them. You should get 1-2 big winter storms this winter with some larger icing impacts as well as some snow. Depending on how far south the cold pushes this winter you guys could get some snow from the Alberta Clippers, but that will probably be just to the north.

      Reply
  17. Jonathan henderson
    Sep 16 2012

    I am from nc i live in the southern foothills. The last 2 winters before this warm one were quite rough.i had to drive to work in our mountains thank god I have jeep wrangler .Do you think we will have any big southern snowstorms this winter even in the upper north part of sc. Youre thoughts please. We had a christmas snow 2 years ago not common for are area.

    Reply
    • sapporo1
      Sep 17 2012

      Thanks for the forecast, you do make it appear as if there is at least some hope this winter, however, one area that always seems to be unmentioned and often neglected by many forecasters, is one of the most crucial areas for water supply in the US besides the Mississippi, and that is the Rocky Mountain region aka Colorado, parts of Wyoming and parts of northern New Mexico, with some emphasis on Colorado in particular, our state is never really mentioned much, and yet our state supplies so much water to neighboring states, we are among the states in the worst of the drought right in there with Kansas, Nebraska and the rest of the corn belt, I do see that on the map we are included in cool and above normal snowfall, slightly above normal precip, how high is your confidence in that panning out here? hope the ao favors more troughing stretching into the rockies, rather than getting sucked into western ridging, we simply cannot afford another dry winter, otherwise next summer could be the worst year for fires in all our history, and then, even smokey the bear will have to say, “even you can’t prevent forest fires”

      Reply
  18. NebraskaWX
    Sep 17 2012

    Craigry whats good home slice? I’m diggin your forecast. Besides our besides our one 14 inch snowstorm in Lincoln during February, the rest of the winter was warm, dry, crappy af. Didn’t think i’d have brown grass from then until now lol. Although the El Nino is weaker than weak, I honestly think that the majority of the winter we will luckily slip into the AO Negative stage atleast for the month of December and likely late February and March. I’m thinking that we will see much more troughs dipping south into Colorado and forming classic low pressure systems that will pummel our area along with the upper midwest. It is only September, so I’m not banking on that statement, but I sure as hell hope it pans out. This summer was by far the most brutal I’ve ever experienced. Receiving just over a trace of rain over a span of 3 months (May-August) is absolutely dispicable, let alone the fact we got fried but 100 degree temperatures the majority of that time. Missing out on severe weather=Big snows in the winter :) let’s hope!

    Reply
  19. Jimi Leigh
    Sep 18 2012

    I really enjoyed reading your forecast predictions but I do have one question since I couldn’t find the information I was looking for, what do you predict for the temp.and snowfall for south western Missouri this coming winter? Last year was so mild a lot of the small family farms around here suffered big time causing local food prices to sky rocket… I do hope we get an average amount of snow this year, or a bit more than normal. Ice storms I can live without, but I would love to see some snow! What should I be looking forward to this winter in my neck of the woods?

    Reply
    • Sep 18 2012

      Depending on the strength of the cold air you could be in the cross hairs of several ice storms and wintery mixes. Thinking the Alberta clipper snows remain to your north.

      Reply
  20. Sep 18 2012

    I’m hoping for a lot of snow in Colorado this year, since we have been in a drought for two years and hay prices are ridiculous.

    Reply
  21. Nick
    Sep 18 2012

    I hope we get hammered here in Denver, CO this winter :)

    Reply
  22. Sep 18 2012

    I disagree with your SST assessment. No nino is here, none in sight it just ain’t happening yet and may not. Way too heavily based on SST’s the NAO will make the winter call and there is no way to determine it’s strength or it’s phase this far out and won’t be until late, late November at the earliest. I think you will be glad you have 2 more issues to hone the Winter forecast just don’t think this one pans out. The other issue is I believe you have mis-tagged the precip for the OV, it won’t be below normal. Time will tell.

    Reply
    • Sep 18 2012

      I agree with you, the ssts barely resemble a healthy nino and the NAO is nearly impossible to predict. Thanks for the comment. Will be interesting to see how things progress.

      Reply
  23. sisore myhanbore
    Sep 18 2012

    2012-2013 is expected in Turkey on how one winter? thank you

    Reply
  24. Mark Lee
    Sep 19 2012

    Craig,

    My thoughts are this winter will be very close to a repeat of last. The issue here is I do not have any confidence that this weak El Nino (if you can call it that…today’s value was -0.30 in the 3.4 region) will be able to trump the the historically negative PDO. With the PDO being the driving factor, a cold West/Northwest with a warm East is how I would go.

    Reply
  25. Mike S
    Sep 19 2012

    Hopefully its cold enough to get some pond hockey in here at the Jersey shore!

    Reply
  26. ronnie bobbitt
    Sep 19 2012

    oh mark ,i am not sure , u know what u talking about . let put my proof out there for u . ok we are in a eastly qbo right now the forcast am see keeps it there right at 2009 levels . what does a eastly qbo do for a winter it gives wide spread cold from the plains down too the south east ,which in turn could mean a snowy mid atlantic .we are in a low solar phase. u add a eastly qbo too a low solar phase u getting blocking. i expect the neutral / weak elnino too cancel out any big affects from a strong cold pdo . even if it dont there are plaenty of known analogs showing a neutral / cold pdo . still shows a cold plains normal south east temperture wise . those analogs are as follwed 52 53 61 62 66 67 78 79 all show this ifs things go that way ? with all the ice melt , around green land expexts say north america maybe expect extemetempertures this winter with high lattitude blocking . green land blocking so 2002 2003 has too be put in . and 2009 which matches the qbo expected .

    Reply
    • richwi
      Sep 20 2012

      Ronnie : Can you explain this comment ???….with all the ice melt , around green land expexts say north america maybe expect extemetempertures this winter with high lattitude blocking

      What do you mean by Extreme temperatures ??

      Reply
    • Andrej Flis
      Sep 20 2012

      About your QBO, I made this Reanalysis just for you. QBO is easterly, but its propagating down. Going to move a bit slowly in the 30-50mb range, but its apparent how the zonal phase is already strong in the upper parts.

      Reply
  27. Brian
    Sep 21 2012

    Hi Craig…nice forecast…a lot of detail…. what would you expect for S.W. Missouri? I live about 25 miles west of Branson..here in Stone County…we hardly had a winter at all last year……I’m hoping for a harsh winter this year!! We plow for a living during the winter months… I want SNOW!!! lol

    Reply
  28. Sep 21 2012

    I live in eastern wisconsin. We were impacted big time with no snow, than drought all summer. hoping for big snow storms. How are we looking?

    Reply
  29. Brooke
    Sep 21 2012

    Just found your site but I have to say it’s very interesting and I am in Maryland and am praying for much more of a winter than we had last year. I was one of those people in shorts and flips in January LOL!! Keep up the good work and I’ll check back in on October 16th!

    Reply
  30. Mahdi
    Sep 22 2012

    I live close to the Detroit Area to.You know the big D, Im really hoping we will be able to have tons of snowstorms and alot of snow like the olden days (2005-2008) when snowstroms used to be bigger and of course snowy-er. So im also hoping for it this upcoming season. May you please reply as soon as possible. P.S I hope Detroit get’s alot of snow!!!!!!!!!!

    Also when is your next upcoming blog about winter forcasting?

    Reply
    • richwi
      Sep 22 2012

      He will October 16th..

      Reply
  31. Allan Crawford
    Sep 22 2012

    What are your thoughts about Snow amounts in the central and northern sierra’s. Last winter left something to be desired, but the previous winter was a blockbuster

    Thanks for the interesting work!!!

    Reply
  32. scott
    Sep 23 2012

    when will your next forecast come out? what is the chances for se mo getin some snow to help knock out the drought?

    Reply
  33. Nikki
    Sep 23 2012

    I am from Columbia, SC and I was wondering what your predictions for this area are? I looked at all your maps and read everything. But still would like some more pinpointed details. (I hope it’s LOTS of snow-didn’t get any last year)
    Thanks! Love the site. Found it last year and couldn’t wait to read this years predictions!!

    Reply
    • Sep 25 2012

      Thank you Nikki! Looks like NC gets quite a few ice and snow events this winter!

      Reply
      • Jonboyva
        Sep 25 2012

        Sent from my Verizon Wireless Device

  34. john schassberger
    Sep 24 2012

    live near louisville,ky. no snow days last year. warmest winter that I know of since I moved here in 1983. you have us listed for a below avg temp by 3 degrees and below avg snowfall. we have had a lot of rain this summer where I live.just lucky.hoping for some snow,not ice.

    Reply
    • Sep 25 2012

      Like I said to the other viewer from Kentucky, I’ll be tweaking your area with the next outlook.

      Reply
  35. farler
    Sep 24 2012

    I LIVE IN LONDON KY. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE A BIG SNOW THIS YEAR. WE HAVE HAD A VERY DRY SUMMER.

    Reply
    • Sep 25 2012

      In my next winter forecast update I may include more moisture for Kentucky. Stay tuned!

      Reply
  36. Sep 26 2012

    I think you may be right about anywhere from the deep south up to the northeast about being colder and more active than normal. But I also think that since this is el ninio that anywhere from the Cornbelt to the Greatlakes to the Pacific Northwest will be fairly identical to last winter mild and dry. I do study the weather/global astronamy also. So I am going against half of what you you are saying. I think that el ninio might have went from a possible strong down to a moderatly-strong el ninio. This very well could be like the 1999-2000 winter season or the 2002-2003 winter season. So we can verbaly bet and see who’s actually right.

    Reply
  37. sisore myhanbore
    Sep 26 2012

    2012-2013 Middle East forecast please.

    Reply
    • richwi
      Sep 26 2012

      WHY Middle East ???…This site is for the USA ..

      Reply
      • sisore myhanbore
        Sep 27 2012

        I’m wondering because. richwi do you have a forecast for Turkey?

      • richwi
        Sep 27 2012

        I have one for Iran..

  38. sisore myhanbore
    Sep 27 2012

    richwi I do not want for iran. turkey for.. do you think that So what is the average for the year of 2013 nao?

    Reply
  39. Ghalib
    Sep 27 2012

    Craig, what about the Sierras. I’ve been lately about long range forecast for thid cominh winter and I find most emphasis on east and midwest. Any thoughts about Ca? Thanks

    Reply
  40. andrew
    Sep 28 2012

    How’s the snowfall for St. Louis look?? Any good snowfalls this year?

    Reply
  41. Essraa mahmoud
    Sep 28 2012

    i live in Egypt . for the past two winters it was slightly colder than the previous ones, so i am wondering will this winter 2012-2013 be more stiff?

    Reply
  42. Sep 29 2012

    hey what about central pennsylvannia i live in williamsport i want to know the winter forcast for PA please i want more snow.

    Reply
  43. corey
    Sep 29 2012

    I love this site, looking forward to the october update. Ohio could use at least one snow day this year, the kids were really disappointed last winter.

    Reply
  44. richwi
    Sep 30 2012

    When are you going to inform us of the new runs ?? Is cold still on the way for next weekend ??

    Reply
  45. Garrett
    Oct 5 2012

    What can I expect for the Memphis area. We got so much snow in the 2010-2011 winter and it only snowed once in Nov. in the 2011-2012 winter.

    Reply
  46. Debra edge
    Oct 7 2012

    What will wintet be like for Georgia this winter?

    Reply
  47. Lauren
    Oct 10 2012

    How about ice and snow forecast for Paducah, KY??? Last winter was way to mild and we never had snow!! Now the summer has scorched us all!! I am wanting a COLD winter with LOTS of snow!!!!!

    Reply
  48. Ben Pietrzak
    Oct 23 2012

    do you think northern indiana will experience more snow fall than 2011-2012 winter?

    Reply
  49. Debbie Current
    Oct 25 2012

    What happened to the next winter forecast update on October 16th? I live in central Indiana and I hope we get a lot of snow to make up for last year!

    Reply
  50. Nov 3 2012

    I’m from the areas surrounding Detroit, MI, ive been waking a couple of years and I am planning my daughters sweet 16. She wants and outdoor one with a snowball fight, will there possibly be enough for that? It’s around early December. I have read about the small, quick flurries and average. But what is average anymore? As much info. And feedback detail as you can give. Thanks!

    Reply
  51. Kelley
    Nov 5 2012

    I, too, am from Michigan, and am hoping for SNOW this year. Last year was disappointing.

    Looking forward to your next assessment.

    KF, Ann Arbor

    Reply
  52. chsd
    Nov 5 2012

    I will start off with I plow snow in the winter and wiuld like to know how this winter is gunna be? And are there tios I can look or watch for in the other seasons because I work outside all year around please email me back. Thanks chad.

    Reply
    • chsd
      Nov 5 2012

      And I forgot to tell you where I live Detroit MI Thank you.Chad

      Reply
  53. Mel
    Nov 7 2012

    Hoping for an update soon…..what do you predict for the St. Loius/SE Illinois area?

    Reply
  54. Cooper Ast
    Nov 7 2012

    will it snow quite a bit in kc kansas this year?

    Reply
  55. J
    Nov 8 2012

    Lets hope TN has a good winter.

    Reply
  56. michael bowes
    Nov 9 2012

    i bet henderson nc doesnt get any snow

    Reply
  57. Nov 13 2012

    i think we are going to get with alot of snow this year do to the storm we had

    Reply
  58. Rose
    Nov 14 2012

    What about Columbus,Georgia??? Anything at all for us????

    Reply
  59. Laura
    Nov 14 2012

    I would love to see snow in Nashville Tn ! Do you think we have a chance this winter?

    Reply
  60. eric
    Nov 21 2012

    MARK MY WORDS, New Mexico will have a very dry winter for 2012/2013! Last year even though NM was in the grip of La Nina, much of western NM and Albuquerque recieved two big snow storms. However the problematic new trend that New Mexico now sees year after year is dramatic warming in Feburary; essentially spring comming early to New Mexico every year. Acomodating this hyper-early warming is wind. These two factors erase the majority of snow pack in the mtns so regardless of snow totals for mtn regions, NM stays in drought conditions for rest of the year. This is the NEW NORM for New Mexico! Now this winter(2012/2013) even though La Nina has quieted down NM will experience its driest winter on record MARK MY WORDS! El Nino started and then quickly died this summer and this means some minor latent effects creating possibly decent winter moisture for western Arizona and parts of southern California. But none of this moisture will ever reach New Mexico! My prediction is based on how for a second year in a row New Mexico has seen a new trend of lack-luster Monsoons. Two years in a row the monsoon track was compressed staying well away from New Mexico but rather flowing only over California and Arizona. This “robing” of New Mexico’s monsoon is going to also be the new norm. The same factors push monsoon plumes away from New Mexico are what also will be keeping any latent El Nino moisture away from New Mexico as well. New Mexico is going to become a hellish place over the next decade!

    Reply
  61. Lisa
    Nov 22 2012

    We live in eastern ks. and my husband depends on snow and ice for winter income. He is debating whether or not to join the rest of family for xmas cruise to Cozemel. He can’t plan to leave town if forecast calls for snow or icy conditions. Any input???

    Reply
  62. Theresa
    Nov 22 2012

    Aw yeah! I sure hope you are right! Im a skier and snowboarder from PA, and last year, was a total let down, its november, still warm, but i hope that will change!!

    Reply
  63. Dominick Dean
    Nov 23 2012

    I live in North Carolina and im usually from rhode island were it snowed alot and im hoping for some snow. do you think we will have any??

    Reply
  64. Trish white
    Nov 23 2012

    I was wandering what to look forward to for south eastern indiana this year thanks so much ?

    Reply
  65. George Walker
    Nov 26 2012

    Well here id Gardner, Ks we are supposed to hit 65degrees next week I swear on week its cold as hell which is awsome and the next im out fishin in swim trunks and my shit kickers drinkin beer so Craig you think the midwest will ever see snow again cuz from here it looks more like dry winter and im gettin tired of it.

    Reply
  66. patrick
    Nov 27 2012

    Its 11/27/12 right now and the temps are above average.later this week its going to be close to 60…i live in Trumbull county ohio…are we going to experience any type of winter weather..any info would be appreciated

    Reply
  67. Melissa Jellema
    Nov 27 2012

    when will NC see the first great snowfall of the winter?

    Reply
  68. Shelly Murphy
    Nov 27 2012

    How much snow do you anticipate for Delaware?

    Reply
  69. Jessica
    Nov 27 2012

    I am an avid skier living in Arvada, Colorado. I was totally bummed out about the horrible ski conditions due to lack of snow last winter. I am also concerned because of the fire danger we face as a state. I know you have mentioned that this winter (2012-2013) is supposed to be better than last year (I am praying this is true). However, we have seen scant amounts of snow in the central Rockies and Front Range area this November. Is this winter weather due to hit a bit later on in the season? or is this dry November indicative of what’s to come?

    Reply
  70. Nov 27 2012

    Hey how are you I’m new to the sight and was wondering your thought on snow for central New Jersey as my kid is praying for it hope you have good news for her . Lol but from what I’ve been reading we are once again leaning towards a warm snowless winter! 11-27-12

    Reply
  71. Nov 28 2012

    what do you think about the lake effect snow along the west side of michigan

    Reply
    • Mathius
      Nov 29 2012

      Western Michigan sucks

      Reply
  72. Abby
    Dec 2 2012

    I live in north eastern Iowa, we had a horrible drought all summer will that effect the snow?

    Reply
  73. Dec 4 2012

    I live beneath BIG oaks. Early acorns were smaller than my pinkie nail and had us all worried, a HUGE downpour of HUGE acorns (they dented my car as hail does) spoke of a hard cold winter which seemed to also suggest the better possibility of snow. but in 4 days, the forcast for snow on thursday and later this week has been changed to rain or nothing and the temps still look way to warm. I love and miss the snow. Is snow going to be a thing of the past, again?

    Reply
  74. Presley
    Dec 4 2012

    Hello,Craig! I hope you still check the comments and reply. I’m from right outside of Memphis, Tn (North Mississippi area. I’m really curious why it hasn’t gotten cold yet? It’s early December and it’s suppose to get up to about 72-73. I’m praying for the cold to come real soon! Craig, I guess I’d like to know this…(#1 question)Why are we still having very mild weather? Actually, I’d say it’s been a bit warm here in Ms. Also…(#2 question)…when do you expect the cold weather to get here? Maybe before Christmas? I miss not having 4 seasons. Craig, I hope you still check the comments. I look forward to hearing from you real soon! :)

    Reply
  75. jose
    Dec 4 2012

    How about Chicago???

    Reply
  76. aknancy
    Dec 5 2012

    What the heck? You start this entire article referring to Alaska’s record breaking snowfall from last year…then nothing? You do not have Alaska in the maps for precip or temp for this winter at all? What gives.. Very disheartening..

    Reply
  77. debbie
    Dec 8 2012

    I live in Mt. Morris, Mi. It’s located just North of Flint. My husband just bought a new snowmobile, and is really hopeing to ride it this winter, since last year was perfect for me, not so much for him. Do you think we will get enough snow this winter for him to enjoy his new toy?

    Reply
  78. mary
    Dec 30 2012

    I live in Fayetteville, North Carolina. It has been a couple years since we seen snow here. Will we be lucky enough to have any good snow fall this winter and if so when?

    Reply
    • Michael
      Jan 2 2013

      Mary, I live in Myrtle Beach S.C. and we last had snow 2 times during January and again In February that was due to El Nino being active that winter in 2010. Then we had some snow and some sleet in January 2010-2011 and then winter 2011-2012 was very mild and we only had about 3 cold days in January and it was only like 47 during the day and then rest of winter was spring like. We are on the same trend as last winter now for 2012-2013 due to El Nino is in a neutral state and has backed off. Other weather folks have said El Nino has died so its not going to do nothing this winter at all. I was right about last winter and I know things can change but we had a very mild December and so far from what I have saw its looking pretty mild for January with temps being in the 50s. All in all its going to be a very slim chance of seeing any snow fall here and in North Carolina unless we get a storm system before its over but so far the models is going with same pattern as last winter with ice and snow being very slim to nothing. Do like my uncle did he took a trip up North just to see plenty of snow.

      Reply
      • Jan 18 2013

        I’m with you, I live in North Gerogia and I want a winter…

  79. Curious
    Jan 25 2013

    When will we get a decent snow in central Illinois?

    Reply
  80. phil
    Jan 26 2013

    i am heading to south lake tahoe first week of febuary what do u predict for that week in that area? ur site rocks!

    Reply
  81. Dan Daugherty
    Feb 7 2013

    I need to know which days it rained or snowed in Guernsey County, Ohio in the month of January 2013. Can anyone help me find these records?

    Reply

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