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April 19, 2012

Winter Storm for the northeast?

by craig1

Hello everyone, I have been watching the evolution of the 500mb pattern on the models over the last week over the eastern United States. It appears that a major pattern change will occur for the east coast, but the question is, what will become of it. Will there be enough cold air for snow to fall for any states in the northeastern United States?

Let’s look at some of the negatives here before we all get all excited for something that may not even happen;

1. We are approaching late April
2. The sun is a lot higher up in the sky then when it was in the winter time
3. Long range models always seem to hint at some snow being possible this far out in the spring
4. The NAO isn’t that negative to produce the needed cold air for this storm, yes there are some models that have it going negative but some keep it positive, so a more neutral feeling probably right

Positives(not many) ;

1. It is a pretty amplified eastern United States trough with a huge ridge in the west thus making it more likely for cooler air to move in
2. Snow more likely for the mountains then anybody
3. Low pressures are known to create there own evaporational cooling closest to the low and areas that have the lowest dew points
4. If the bulk of the precipitation occurs at night, areas could receive the snow more so

Let’s look at the NAO;

Yes it’s starting to dip but it’s barely negative by the storm arrives, and even as we approach closer, not much would put it back up into the positive category again. But then again, it could dip down below negative thus creating cooler air needed for this storm system.

Here is the latest european computer model, it is quite crazy with a strong low pressure over eastern New York state, with snow to the west of that track;

It can snow in April, but we need to look at the negatives before we jump on this right away without looking at this and thinking realistically! But I would definitely want a storm system to forecast for before summer settles in.

More forecast articles are set to follow. Have a great Thursday everyone.


Craig McPeck

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