Relationship between ENSO, the QBO, and the longwave regime over the lower 48.
I am having trouble posting links to the NOAA Climate Division Plot/ESRL page so this will be quite brief. I’ll see if I can fix the problem later on.
The climate system is a complex machine with large scale governing factors intertwined in a sea of spatiotemporal chaos, but that doesn’t mean we cannot isolate larger scale external forcing mechaisms from this sea of chaos. For the most part I believe the QBO needs to be singled out in it’s specific phase from the kinetic system state (ENSO) which appears to be asociated with the solar wind. A +QBO (westerly) is marked by anomalous westerlies downwelling through equatorial stratosphere, visa versa applies to the -QBO (easterly) phase. These winds pose significant consequence with variations in tropospheric circulatory functions, namely the crazy relationships (both direct and indirect) between the NAM, Walker Cell, etc. These connections can be explored and singled out to some extent.
I am having some trouble posting the images/links I want to, but to get a general idea of what I look to discuss, here is a paper by Labitzke and Kunze, “Interactions Between the Stratosphere, the Sun, and the QBO during the Northern Summer.
I hope to share my ideas on the topic of the upcoming pattern this SEP-OCT-NOV period, and how the most important drivers going forward include the solar wind/ENSO, QBO downwell rate, and resulting variations in the NAM (North Annular Mode).