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September 29, 2012

Major cold air outbreak and first real snow of the season?

by craig1

Hello folks and yes I did say first winter storm! The latest models are doing very well with developing a major pattern change across the northern and central Plains through the Ohio Valley late next week. This in turn brings down colder air and a storm system. Now how this storm system phases with the trough and cold air remains to be seen but I have seen some real lookers when it comes to snowfall potential.

Here is the GFS for the upper midwest then parts of the northern plains;

Then as it transitions further south;

Then conditions are favorable for some snow across western South Dakota in the Black Hills! The canadian model is quite bullish with the intensity of the cold air and snow;

Then;

So as you can see we have a lot of watching to do with this storm system! Still not set in stone by any means but I can say for sure that the upper midwest definitely has a shot at seeing some snow later next week particularly in Montana and the western Dakotas but anywhere else besides that is still a big question mark. Besides that MUCH below average temperatures will follow for a while so please stay tuned.

-Craig

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