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October 23, 2012



by craig1

Hello and good Tuesday afternoon folks, I’m sure over the last several days anyone who has lived on the east coast has been paying attention to the latest models and forecasts concerning the potential for tropical system Sandy to affect the northeastern United States. What is remarkable is that this tropical system has the potential to get sucked in and merge with the cold trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes. This all started developing starting last Thursday night with the canadian model first saying this striking the northeast Atlantic Coast with extremely high winds, extremely heavy rain and potential for crippling snowfall for parts of PA and the Great Lakes. Over the weekend models over time began to converge on this happening and agreeing with the canadian model and now the very model that first started this is starting to back off with the direct hit on the east coast. But let’s review over what some of the model’s have been saying so far;

ECMWF Model;

As you can see the european model strikes New York City with a strong tropical storm with high winds and heavy rainfall. It then sits over the northeast for a few days and spins out until it dies basically.


As you can see, the trough still advances east while Sandy moves out to sea not bringing any impact to the eastern United States. Infact the gfs has been quite consistent over the last couple days with doing this, not just on 18z and 6z runs but not 00z and 12z model data runs. Who’s to say the GFS is right though?

Let’s take a look at the Canadian Model;

The canadian model takes it out to sea, but the trough sucks it back west affecting the northern New England States region around Boston and Maine connecting to some residual moisture from the strong polar cold front over the eastern Great Lakes.

JMA model for what it’s worth, believe it or not the japanese model has caught onto some things before..

The JMA model curves out to sea then brings it back in and hits Boston with high impact heavy rain and high winds and potential for accumulating snow on the very far west side in western New York state.

NAVY Model;

The NAVY model just completely pulverizes the northeast coast making landfall near New York City with high winds and extremely heavy amounts of rainfall and very heavy snow and strong winds in the east Great Lakes and we stern New York State.

Here is the GFDL model otherwise known as the hurricane model;

The GFDL model starts to take a right turn but at the very end starts to move due north.

Definitely plenty of models to go by for this actually striking the northeastern United States. And if this were to actually happen, EXTREMELY high winds and heavy rainfall would be the result along the coast line and inland eventually with the cold air tapping into the western portion of this could see heavy amounts of snowfall.

So please stay tuned folks!


1 Comment Post a comment
  1. Dennis Bou
    Oct 23 2012

    Watching & waiting here in South Jersey …. looks like the supermarkets may be packed this weekend. Too bad it isn’t winter …. would be a great coastal snowstorm & maybe one for the books!


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