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October 26, 2012

0z model update on potential CATASTROPHIC northeastern Storm!

by craig1

Good early Friday morning everyone, I am updating everyone on the superstorm to hit the northeastern United States as we head towards Sunday night through Tuesday!  Let’s first get started talking about what the european weather model said;

The european model is a little more south then last nights 0z model model run and overall has less snow over parts of western New York and Virginia but still has upwards of 12-24″ of snowfall in the Appalachians. One thing I have also noticed is that the european model keeps the strongest winds on the eastern eyewall side and the entire wind field weakens as it moves ashore, so I’m not sure if the high winds will really have that much of an impact inland.

The GFS 0z model hits just south of New York City with extremely heavy amounts of rainfall but once again the strongest surface winds are to the eastern side of the storm system but I would imagine that some of the high winds would have an impact on the coast lines as well before dissipating as it moves inland. Also the talk has been for extreme storm surge, even I have heard the word astronomical so will continue to monitor that one.

Let’s take a look at one more model, the canadian model, which is the farthest north;

This is quite remarkable, the canadian model actually takes this storm out to sea then curves back due northwest and hits the northern tip of Maine with heavy snowfall for much of New York with strong winds. This is the outlier model at this point and I really do not see this happening. I am thinking it will hit more so near the New York City area.

Now for one last thing, the total precipitation forecast by the GFS then the HPC;

GFS;

As you can see a wide swath of 3-6 inch rain amounts is fairly certain across a large part of the northeast with obviously potential for quite a bit more with localized banding.

HPC;

HPC has quite a bit more precipitation across the northeast, but I’d more bank on this happening than the GFS because this storm will be sitting over the northeast for about 3 days spinning with heavy rainfall.

One things for sure, high amounts of rainfall, flooding and potential for high winds on the coast is certain, snowfall is less certain but certainly possible depending on how much cold air gets wrapped into this storm.

Stay tuned for more updates…..

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