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November 16, 2012


Final Winter Forecast 2012-2013 – WINTER RETURNS

by craig1

Hello everyone and welcome to Snow Day’s final winter outlook for this winter of 2012-2013. So far it has been quite an interesting season of fall with it already being much colder and wetter for large areas of the country as compared to last fall over much of the country when last fall was anything but cold and wet with much above average temperatures last fall and very dry conditions! Now enough of the talk about Fall weather, let’s get started talking about the final Winter Forecast!

One thing that has had a small effect on the weather in the past has been the solar cycle and sunspots. Last winter was starting off in the peak of the new solar max and the temperatures responded over the country with much above average temperatures over the United States. But currently the solar max is not behaving like it should, it is currently MUCH lower in strength then what the Space Weather Prediction center predicted;

As you can see, we are nearing the peak of the solar max, but we are way lower then the projected path. What this is trying to tell us, is that, the solar cycle and solar max will barely have any effect if any at all on winter and its winter pattern. Typically, an active solar max would spell a +NAO/AO across the country, but with this solar max nearly non existent, I really dont see the solar max effecting the NAO/AO this winter.

Last summer and early this fall, many forecasters were forecasting El Nino conditions to develop, and they did, but as time went on through this fall, El Nino conditions along the equator in the Pacific fell apart. Typical warm waters that we normally see with an El Nino are not occurring at this time. And I really dont expect any major changes as we head through the winter. Let’s compare the sea surface temperatures from October 16th and today November 16th;

October 16th

And November 16th, today;

As you can see, barely any change has occurred, with many a few less blue specs along the equator then what we had on October 16th.

Let’s look at a typical El Nino sea surface temperature chart;

Now, as we compare all three of these, we can CLEARLY see that we are not seeing typical El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the warmth is just not there. Instead, plenty of blue spots along the Equator instead of large areas of warmth. I have come to the conclusion that we will not see El Nino conditions this winter, rather more neutral winter conditions, neither La Nino now El Nino.

Now for what everyone is looking for, the forecast maps for this winter!

Winter 2012-2013 Temperatures

I have trimmed back the below average temperatures even more so for this winter over the country. I believe with how the current storm tracks and moisture over the fall, I believe this is where the most consistent below average temperature areas will be. The most consistent area of below average temperatures will be over the far north, including the Dakotas and Montana and through the Great Lakes and perhaps the northeastern United States. South of that, I expect average temperatures to rule this winter mainly from I-80 on south. Don’t let your guard down through. I see plenty of sharp temperature contrasts this winter with 2-3 MAJOR arctic outbreaks this winter mainly over the central plains through the Ohio Valley. You may ask, why then do you only have average temperatures? I believe that even with how strong the cold air may be, these arctic blasts will only last 2-3 days at a time then the moderation will begin, mainly up to near average to average temperature levels.The NAO/AO look on par to be average to in the negative range this winter, so it should be no where near what we saw last winter, and I can thank God for that.

Winter 2012-2013 Snowfall

I below two major areas of above average snowfall will set up over the country. One – I believe that an active storm track out of the desert southwest into the central plains will result in above average snowfall from western Nebraska to northern Nebraska on north to the Dakotas and Montana will rule. I am expecting two major winter storms over this area with perhaps one storm containing high winds creating blizzard conditions in early January. South of that, more like average snowfall will rule and over the Ohio Valley as well. A second bigger area with above average snowfall will play out over the northeastern United States. I am seeing 2-4 major nor’easters to strike with high amounts of snowfall and high winds.

Winter 2012-2013 Precipitation

Winter precipitation will be above average over southern California as well as the upper plains states as many Alberta Clippers and Texas Panhandle Low pressure systems will provide this area with above average precipitation. A much more higher concentrated area of above average temperatures will exist over the east coast and the northeastern United States as a few major nor’easters will provide much above average winter precipitation. The south and central and southern plains will receive more like average precipitation.

Winter 2012-2013 Storm Tracks

I believe the storm tracks will be quite active this winter with the east coast getting hit pretty hard this winter by several nor’easter storm tracks and perhaps 1 or 2 Ohio Valley low pressure systems. Another area that I have been focusing on is the central plains, where a few major Texas Panhandle low pressure storm systems will move out of the dessert southwestern United States as well as the typical Alberta clipper system over the upper midwest.

That’s a wrap up for this winter forecast, overall I expect a complete turn around from last winter with much colder weather and more snowfall for everyone this winter, even if you are seeing average temperatures and snowfall amounts, that is still a huge turn around from last winter. Ultimately the northern plains and east coast have to really watch this winter early on as that is when I expect the brunt of the winter to hit with major arctic blasts and winter storms. Feel free to share this link with your family and friends to get the word out about Snow Day’s winter outlook. As always it’s a privilege to serve more and more viewers each and every year and I thank you for your viewership.

Have a great day and remember to THINK SNOW!


Craig McPeck

12 Comments Post a comment
  1. Angie
    Nov 16 2012

    Bring on the SNOW, wanna see lots and lots of snow in Central Indiana this year!!!!!!!!!
    Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Brian
      Nov 20 2012

      The Carmel, IN area needs it! Lets wish for a white Christmas this year!

  2. corey
    Nov 16 2012

    Southern ohio needs snow!

  3. Nov 16 2012

    Check out my blog for winter outlooks

  4. Anthony
    Nov 16 2012

    Yeah, I am expecting to see pretty much ABOVE average snowfall for us in the mid Atlantic, let alone the rest of the northeast coast. After 2 years of mild and basically snowless, disappointing winters, we are pretty much overdue for a good winter. Hopefully, we shouldn’t be disappointed this winter 2012-2013.

  5. Nov 18 2012

    Reblogged this on procrastinate now not later and commented:
    thought this was good enough to reblog, not for AP Lang

  6. Mike
    Nov 19 2012

    Only an average winter for the Middle Tennessee area…I was hoping for a lot of snow! 😦

  7. Jon Mack
    Nov 25 2012

    Eek. Last winter here in Hobbs, NM… We had a white Christmas,… Decent snowfall for us… 4-5 days of 3-6 in. While everybody else got the shaft. This year I hope the model is wrong for us, because we LOVE the snow in this household!!

    • Donna
      Jan 2 2013

      Yep!!!! I’m whicha on that!!!!!!

  8. Abby
    Dec 15 2012

    Will there be snow in northern Iowa before Christmas?

  9. Donna
    Jan 2 2013

    I am beyond snow-obsessed. If the part of the forecast where it says 2-4 major storms possible for the east coast, I’m ready to celebrate!!!!


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