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December 3, 2012

MAJOR Pattern Change – Arctic Air and Winter Storm

by craig1

Hello and good afternoon folks, as I type this it is sitting in the middle 60s here in Omaha Nebraska and hopefully we see some snow soon because I could sure use it and the spring soil moisture sure could use it. Anyways, been looking over the latest computer models on next weeks major pattern change to much colder weather and windier weather for the Central Plains and Ohio Valley. Depending on how strong the push of cold air is, how negative the NAO is and when the storm system phases over the southwest United States is key to determining where this storm system will line up.

Okay let’s start off with a computer model roll up and analysis shall we……..? I think so. Let’s get at it folks;

GFS Computer model;

gfs1

As you can see, early on Tuesday the storm system begins to start exhibiting the negative tilt feature which is always key in big winter storm systems for the central Plains through the Ohio Valley. The Key is to WHERE this phases if it phases further west then the track will be further northwest. This image depicts Oklahoma and parts of Kansas receiving strong winds and light to moderate snowfall. On the next frame the storm system strengthens and the precipitation shield begins to get bigger as well to the north.

gfs2

Heavy precipitation shield begins to develop later Tuesday from eastern Kansas through parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.

Now onto the canadian computer model!

cmcprogressive

As you can see, the canadian computer model is MUCH more progressive with the storm system with just a strong cold front and rain and snow along and behind the cold front. This so far is the outlier but I cannot completely rule out this happening, but as of right now I will throw this run out.

EUROPEAN;

euro

The european model takes the storm system from southern Kansas and right over Chicago. It has a very strong wind gradient but as it does look like a very powerful low pressure as depicted by the euro model I looked at the precipitation panels and not much precipitation is falling to the nw of the storm track its all mostly to the southeast which I really do not get with such a strong storm system.

I will be issuing a winter storm threat map later tonight if trends persist in any one area but as of right now if you live in Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas do not write this storm off, if it phases earlier the storm will be further north but if it doesn’t folks south of that area and through the northern Ohio Valley will see the brunt of the storm system.

Also below is the NAO forecast, take a look at this. EXTREMELY negative as we head into this storm system early to mid next week! Impressive!

NAO

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