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December 3, 2012

Winter Storm Update : 0z GFS

by craig1

Good evening everyone just doing a quicker winter storm update on the storm system for early to middle of next week. Some interesting changes in the phasing has occurred with the storm system for early next week. Let’s break it down;

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Both 12z and the current 0z gfs run start off just like normal with the trough coming out of Canada but then it starts to hang back longer in the southwest at a more positively tilted level.

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The storm system already is a couple hundred miles more north now along with the freezing line and start breaking out in Kansas and parts of Nebraska. Earlier near this time the 12z and 18z had St Louis getting snow, now with them getting rain now.

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Earlier Nebraska and Iowa were not getting any snow, now they are with this 0z run with much of Missouri now seeing all rain. The storm system is a bit weaker on the computer model run but right now we are trying to nail down the exact path which wont be fully realized until this weekend, this is why folks shouldn’t jump on a storm track so early when things can change.

Bottom line is that the 0z took the storm further north and area such as Nebraska and Iowa through the northern Great Lakes are still in play for this.

Stay tuned for updates at 1:30 AM after the rest of the 0z model updates!

-Craig

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