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December 4, 2012

2

Winter Storm Update : 12z Models

by craig1

Good Tuesday afternoon everyone I am still reviewing over the potential for a winter storm system to hit the central Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Today’s models have varied from no storm at all to several inches of snow and wind to just a few flurries over the northern Plains. Let’s go over each of the models here;

12z EURO;

eurostorm

The latest 12z euro really digs the storm deep across the dessert southwestern United States and really doesn’t phase the storm system just kind of moves along the front northeast through central Ohio with a swath of snow through central Michigan. Nothing really strong looking here just a quick mover.

12z CMC

cmcstorm

The latest canadian computer model deepens the storm over eastern Kansas and moves it over Chicago early next week. This would break out a swath of moderate-heavy snow from eastern Nebraska to Central Iowa and through southern Wisconsin. The colder air comes in quicker thus moves the storm system further northwest.

12z NAVY

navystorm

The 12z navy is rather progressive in nature with the storm system, it really doesn’t phase at all with the cold air and is really just a band of snow and rain along the front as it moves through over parts of Nebraska and Iowa on south.

I am not really allowed to post the JMA model or the DGEX model on the model site I use but the JMA model really digs and phases the storm over central Kansas and leaves a significant swath of snow from western Kansas to Nebraska parts of Iowa eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin early next week while the DGEX does nearly the same thing.

Now, thinking over everything, I really wouldn’t say we have any real agreement among any models going on here. The GFS/EURO model seem to be really weakening the storm system and going way further south while the CMC/JMA/DJEX model all go further north. Really plenty of days to go with pulling our hair out over this storm system but one thing I can say is that i dont think the storm will fall apart, there will be a storm with this very negative NAO and I think the colder air will be stronger then anticipated thus making it go further northwest. But that’s just my two cents.

Stay tuned later tonight for updates on the 12z GFS then euro/cmc/navy later on!

-Craig

 

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2 Comments Post a comment
  1. richwi
    Dec 4 2012

    Thanks Craig…Please keep us updated…On Every days run..

    Reply
  2. Dec 4 2012

    Thank you!

    Reply

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