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December 5, 2012

3

Winter Storm Update : 0z Models

by craig1

Good morning everyone, just going ahead with a quick update on the 0z models that came out overnight and most of them are starting to drift north except a few of them. Let’s take a look at them shall we?

0z ECMWF

booeuro

Let’s just say the european model has totally lost the storm, it doesn’t develop it at all, just a strong cold front with a few cold air advection snow showers. Not really going to go with this computer model run as it is the outlier out of every other model but will pay close attention to it.

0z CMC

canadian

As you can see the canadian model has a swath of snow from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska through northern and western Missouri as well as parts of northern Illinois and southern and central Wisconsin. The storm system isn’t too terribly strong but still would lay out a swath of several inches over the mentioned areas.

0z NAVY

navywoosh

The navy model has a strong storm system, not really negative tilted however, but still has several inches of snow from northwestern Kansas to central and eastern Nebraska and on through Iowa and eventually southern Wisconsin.

0z GFS

gfsss

The GFS model is a lot like the canadian as well as the NAVY model but the european model continually disagrees and either has a progressive storm or nothing at all. Bottom line is there is still way too much uncertainty regarding the track. Some major models are starting to move north with the snow but still a lot of fine tuning to go. The system has not moved on shore yet, which is part of the problem obviously. Gotta get the storm sampled once it moves on land and out of fantasy land. Not saying the EURO couldn’t be right but right now that is the outlier with all the models. 

Stay tuned for more updates mid day today and later this afternoon after 12z models!

Have a great morning and THINK SNOW!

-Craig

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3 Comments Post a comment
  1. richwi
    Dec 5 2012

    Thanks Craig !!…Please keep up with the updates..

    Reply
  2. Dec 15 2012

    Wow thanks for all the updates!

    I live in SE New Mexico, and we got about .25″ last week! (Not enough :-/ lol) but it was a start to winter I’d been waiting for!

    I’ve been wondering when the weather would send us a good storm, or if that’s in the cards for us this year. Had snow/rain across the state yesterday, so I know the moisture is there!

    Reply
  3. Matt
    Dec 16 2012

    Craig, do you have any comments on the Wednesday night and Thursday morning storm? What’s your thoughts?

    Reply

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