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December 17, 2012

Winter Storm update and White Christmas Forecast!

by craig1

Hello and good Monday afternoon everyone! Pretty busy tracking a winter storm that will be possible over the Great Plains including Nebraska, Kansas, parts of Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The computer models are starting to come into better agreement regarding the actual evolution, track and strength of the storm system. Still minor kinks will need to be worked out and those minor kinks will have a large effect depending on if you are on a fine line between lots of snow to not much at all. Below is my winter storm forecast map;

winterstormlikely

The best area I see for accumulating snow in from western Kansas to central and eastern Nebraska to much of Iowa, southern Minnesota, southern and central Wisconsin. The actual area of significant snow will not actually be this large but the best areas are in blue above.

Let’s take a look at a few computer models regarding this storm system;

GFS:

gfs123

The GFS computer model tracks the low pressure system over Kansas City and lays a swath of significant snow over central and eastern Nebraska, northern Kansas and much of Iowa to much of Wisconsin. The low begins to tighten up early Thursday with strong winds possibly inducing Blizzard Conditions.

NAM;

nam123

With the same path as the GFS computer model I think we can come to a conclusion that the storm system will track near Kansas City northeast to Chicago laying a swath of accumulating snow and strong winds to the NW track of the storm system.

The european computer model is a tad more south but the track record with that model is benign considering it has not been the best the last few weeks. The UKMET/CMC model are more so agreeing as well. I will be issuing more 0z model updates later tonight so stay tuned!

White Christmas Forecast

whitechristmas

A large area of the Great Plains I believe has a high chance at receiving a White Christmas based on the upcoming storm system coming as well as recent snow still on the ground in the Dakotas and Minnesota. The storm system mid this week will usher in Lake Effect Snow on the Great Lakes thus most of those areas will see a White Christmas. The areas to the south in the possible zone are more iffy regarding a storm system on Christmas day next week, that storm is all over the place so please stay tuned!

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