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January 2, 2013

Mid-Month return to winter weather for the central Plains?

by craig1

After about 5-7 days of warmer weather to move into the central plains and Ohio Valley as well as the eastern United States, a new series of troughs are expected to form over the western United States. The first trough that moves out into the Plains will have the least amount of cold air available but still could pack a punch somewhere in the plains. Let’s take a look at the NAO;

nao

As you can see, the NAO has been positive for a while but as we head towards the 10th-16th the NAO will start to slide down towards negative range and perhaps even negative by the 16th. This would indicate more potential cold air to wrap into any storm systems around that time.

Most models are developing a series of troughs in the extended but I’ll post the most reliable model and that is the EURO;

cutoffyay

The first trough or cut off low appears near the 9th of this month and as you can see, very little cold air is available at this time for this storm system. As it moves northeast more cold air will interact but I dont see a huge amount of arctic air involved in this.

After that things change;

f240

Another storm system closer to the dates I mentioned when the NAO starts to go negative, colder air is available for storm systems around this time. Now this is way in advance but I’ve seen enough consistency to say that more storminess will occur as we approach mid month!

Stay tuned!

 

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