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February 18, 2013

Winter Storm Update : 0z models

by craig1

Good early Monday morning everyone, we are tracking a MAJOR winter storm here at Snow Day. Let’s get off talking about the 0z data.

Let’s first talk about the 0z GFS QPF totals:

0zgfstot

The model has a wide area of .75-1.00 inches of QPF over Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa with the bullseye across southeastern Nebraska. That would put a significant swath of 8-12″ with 12-15″ is along I-80 near Lincoln Nebraska. As this storm system moves northeast and east the snow shield begins to fall apart by Friday over eastern Iowa and into the Great Lakes as the blocking effect begins to squash it down.

0z CMC model;

0zcmc

The 0z CMC model is a bit less over Nebraska with once again the bullseye over northeast Kansas to southeast Nebraska from Lincoln to Omaha and this time through Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

NAVY model;

navy

The NAVY model is considerably stronger and wound up then other models with two feet of snow possible across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

0z NAM;

0znamsnow

0z NAM only goes out to 84 hours but already it is showing huge amounts over central Kansas to eastern Nebraska and central Nebraska.

At 84 HOUR it is really starting to crank up;

84hr

Bullseye is really starting to fall over eastern Nebraska with perhaps some thundersnow over this area.

One thing is for sure, the most significant totals look to be over Nebraska through western Iowa. Obviously the path is set in stone but the strength is not. How high these totals will go is still in question so stay tuned!

 

-Craig

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