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November 19, 2014

FINAL Winter Forecast 2014-2015

by craig1

Hi everyone, it is that time of year for our FINAL winter forecast for the 2014-2015 Winter Season! How exciting! I have already gone over last winter’s forecast and how Snow Day did last winter on the first winter forecast for this season so please scroll down and read that if you would like too. We have already had a very fast start to winter across much of the United States all thanks to an Omega Block and the super typhoon energy hitting the Jetstream and knocking all that cold air down into the United States producing 15-40 degrees below average for temperatures. We are also looking at about 50% of the country seeing snowfall on the ground right now compared to the measly 15% at this time last winter. That is incredible in itself. I think what just happened is laying the ground work for a very harsh winter to come and we have seen some incredible patterns in the jetstream that will tend to give us a very good idea of what we can expect this winter.

Let’s take a look at a few things so far of what is going on.

Drought

Screen shot 2014-11-19 at 2.45.51 PM

We have a lot going on here with the drought. First off, we have some minor drought conditions sneaking into portions of the Eastern United States. Nothing that can’t be fixed by a couple good storm systems to lay down some moisture. The southern Plains continues to be in a drought but have improved dramatically over the last 6 months and I expect this to continue to wither away. The western United States still is having issues having three years of being in a MAJOR drought. I expect improvement this winter with more wetter storm systems laying down some good soakers along with some heavier mountain snowfalls.

NAO

updatednao

If you are looking for a winter that will feature very cold conditions you will be very happy. The NAO is forecasted to remain positive to negative through the early part of the winter even positive at times. But by the end of the winter it will go sharply negative with perhaps the core of the cold weather coming near late December and early January much like last Januarys “Polar Vortex”.

ENSO

newenso

Looking at the climate conditions it appears that most climate models has us along the lines of seeing a neutral winter…HOWEVER…It has been VERY evident that we have seen El Nino conditions and patterns so far and I do not see a reason on why not that can’t continue. We have very warm waters along where they should be in the Pacific so the stories on the El Nino not occurring is completely wrong.

TYPICAL  NAO FORECAST

NAO2

Typically … with a negative NAO the forecast would be with the bottom forecast graphic, and that is what I expect, HOWEVER, with an El Nino more storm systems will affect the middle of the country as well.

Snow Cover

Screen shot 2014-11-19 at 2.57.00 PM

It doesn’t take a dummy to realize we are WELL ahead of schd here. The snow cover is much above average. By this time last winter virtually no state had snow cover in the ground, no look what we have now, extensive snow cover. This speaks VOLUMES and I think the trend will continue for snow.

Key Patterns

pattern1

This is one of the key patterns I expect to cycle through the winter. As we begin to warm up from major arctic cold a storm system should emerge into the southwestern United States and a trough will begin to form in the center of the country. I expect this winter to give more snow to areas that didn’t receive it last winter over the Great Plains.

otherpattern

 

The other pattern I expect to see is one that will produce major storm systems along the east coast delivering with it significant accumulating snow and maybe even a few Blizzards this winter.

Without further adiue….THE WINTER FORECAST!

finalfinalwinterforecast

I am expecting much more wetter conditions over the west coast, particularly over the Pacific Northwest. However, those areas will still see average to above average temperatures. The Great Plains I expect to have a much more snowier winter compared to last winter. The cold outbreaks will be more severe however I expect several breaks to allow for everyone to catch there breath before the next blast of cold air comes through. The Ohio Valley will see a repeat of last winter with above average snow. However, when the pattern changes, and the troughs form in the west,  I could see the Ohio Valley seeing some severe weather outbreaks and flooding concerns as the storm systems lay down snow in the Plains. The southeast I expect several winter storm systems as the cold air bleeds south from up north with several ice storms. The northeast I expect to have an amazing winter with copious amounts of snowfall and the cold weather will be more persistent than last winter.

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